ANALYSIS: Beginning of the end?

ANALYSIS: Beginning of the end?
Published on December 13, 2005

A previously unthinkable scenario – a quick Thaksin Shinawatra downfall – is looking more likely by the day

When the next election comes about, or when the next government is formed, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra won’t be making a comeback.

Hard to believe, perhaps, but insiders and political watchers are looking at the possibility of non-Thaksin politics with growing interest, as the “five pillars” that once supported his leadership are beginning to crack.

“Key members of Thai Rak Thai understand the grave situation. They realise Thai Rak Thai won’t return to power again in the next election. That’s why they are planning to jump ship,” said an aide to an ex-Cabinet member in Thaksin’s government.

“They can quickly catch the scent of things. The story that Sanan Kachornprasart has been in talks with Somsak Thepsuthin, Suriya Jungrungreangkit and Pinij Jarusombat is all true. It appears they may be forming something like a grand coalition with the Democrats.”

Thaksin had a meal with key Thai Rak Thai members last week after Kom Chad Luek, the mass-circulation Thai daily, broke a story that his lieutenants were considering a mass defection.

Somsak, Pinij and others came out to deny the report, which they said, was leaked by someone with ill intentions toward them and the party. Snoh Thienthong’s Wang Nam Yen faction has been lurking silently in the wings, ready to pounce on Thaksin at any given time.

Yet the damage was done. It marked the first sign of cracks in Thai Rak Thai, which is made up of several factions. Money politics brought these factions together. But if Thaksin’s popularity sinks further – a likely scenario – defection or change within the party should accelerate and it might collapse like a house of cards.

Thai Rak Thai’s domination of Parliament is one of the five pillars that allowed Thaksin to control of the country. And it looks like it’s starting to crumble.

A political insider in government said Thaksin’s ability to stay in power depends on his ability to cope with the five pillars – the monarchy, the people, the media, parliament and the military.

Backed by a strong political mandate, Thaksin appeared to be doing rather well in his first term where he used a delicate, yet strong-handed approach to balance his relationship with the five pillars. With 19 million votes for Thai Rak Thai, Thaksin convincingly won a second term in the February election, winning 377 out of 500 seats in the Lower House.

But in recent months, the tide has turned against him, due to the public’s pent-up anger at his arrogance and overconfidence, traits that have damaged his credibility beyond repair. Anti-Thaksin sentiment is also quickly spreading.

His administration was badly hurt by the CTX bomb-detectors scandal at the new airport. Then came the “conspiracy” to buy Matichon Publishing Group and Post Publishing Group. Thaksin was also damaged by Thai Rak Thai’s opposition to extend the Skytrain to Thon Buri, which infuriated local residents.

The government’s real agenda for privatising Egat Plc has never been fully explained and the initial public offering of Egat was recently blocked by the Supreme Administrative Court.

Teachers have also been up in arms, staging demonstrations opposing Thaksin’s decentralisation policy.

Most recently, media maverick Sondhi Limthongkul has exposed a series of corruption scandals that have rocked Thaksin and his cronies.

In regard to the “first pillar”, the monarchy, Thaksin appears to have all but lost the confidence of the Royal institution.

In an address on December 4, His Majesty the King rebuked the PM on several counts, particularly his intolerance of criticism. The King said the King can do wrong and that Thai people are entitled to criticise him. The following day Thaksin told his lawyer to drop all libel charges, worth Bt2 billion in claims, against Sondhi.

The revered King also used the words “dead” or “die” seven times in his speech – something he had never done before – to back his warnings as to what bad political steps could lead to. He said everyone should practice awareness in everything they do and think. He admitted that before becoming King, he experienced moments of regret, but after taking the throne, he became more careful about his thoughts and actions.

"Had I not been careful enough, I would have been dead," the King said. "If we do wrong, we will also die. Everybody is in this same situation. Those who hold high rank in society, if they are not careful enough, they will die too ... I am not condemning anyone, but if we are not careful, Thailand will perish. I ask you all to be careful, very careful with what you think, speak, or do. If you think it is right, go ahead and do it."

Denis Gray, of Associated Press, summed up: "So a few words of royal rebuke against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have been enough to send tremors through the political arena, already shaken by escalating attacks against Thaksin's government for alleged corruption, cronyism and abuse of power on a massive scale.

"Some analysts say this rare intervention by revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej may even signal the beginning of the end for Thaksin, who enjoyed an overwhelming re-election victory just 10 months ago."

In regard to the "second pillar", the people, Thaksin is seeing his popularity sink. A recent survey found his rating at an eight-month low. And while the rural populace may not be fully aware of political developments taking place, they are seeing their debts accumulate. For the moment, however, their anger is contained.

But the middle-class has increasingly become disillusioned with Thaksin. There is a pent-up frustration over state controls and dirty politics, and the anger appears ready to burst out at any time. That is why more people turned out at Sondhi's talk show on Friday to listen to his exposure of state corruption and scandals.

On websites for political debates, Thaksin has fewer defenders and most are out to criticise the prime minister and his government with harsh and abusive language.

Thaksin’s relationship with the “third pillar”, the media, is getting badly out of control. He thought he had subjugated state-owned media and had major publications on his side, in the style of Singapore and Malaysia. But Thailand is not Singapore or Malaysia. And it is Thaksin’s folly to believe he can sway the press forever.

When Grammy GMM sought to take over Matichon, there was public furore. Civic groups forced Grammy GMM to retreat. But the fall-out struck Thaksin hard, with the public firmly believing the newspaper buy-ups were linked to his government’s continual moves to muffle the press.

Thaksin blundered further when Channel 9 removed Sondhi’s Thailand Weekly political talk show in September because of its unfriendly criticism of the government. As a result, Sondhi held his talk show in public arenas and drew crowds several-hundred-thousand strong through cable TV, live Internet broadcasts and newspaper reports. The media has hit back, making it virtually impossible for Thaksin to silence critics.

Sondhi’s weekly talk show has become a big embarrassment to the PM because he has exposed corruption scandals. He has attacked Thaksin directly and last week shifted his target to ACM Kongsak Wantana, the interior minister.

“Sondhi is likely to go after the Cabinet members of Thaksin one by one. The next big fish may be Suriya [Jungrungreangkit],” a political insider said.

Thaksin’s control of the “fourth pillar”, Parliament, is also no longer unbreakable. Before the February election, he wanted to muster 400 MPs to claim absolute control of Parliament. But Thai Rak Thai has been shown to be a marriage of convenience with its factions, not unlike the Samakkhitham Party during the Suchinda era.

Once key members of Thai Rak Thai start to defect – hard under current constitutional circumstances but not impossible – the party will fall. Civic and democracy movements have been calling for political reform to end his one-party rule. Sondhi also tried to highlight political reform in one of his attacks.

Thaksin’s relationship with the “fifth pillar”, the military, is far from smooth, although the public perception is that he has absolute control over the three armed forces. In truth, if a crisis breaks out, Thaksin cannot count on the police, Army, Navy and Air Force coming to his side. The last military reshuffle, which faced unprecedented 24-day delay before winning royal assent, Thaksin was stopped from putting certain people into key positions because of intervention from Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, chairman of the Privy Council.

As the wind of change blows, Thailand is headed for political confrontation, one that will be decisive and abrupt. But there should be no bloodshed. In the end, it is hard to see how Thaksin can escape the whirlwind that’s sweeping the playing field.

Political Desk

The Nation

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