Weird weather forecast for the long term

Published on December 25, 2005

Whether it is severe, long-term flooding in the South, a cold snap in the North that follows worse than usual seasonal flooding, or the persistent drought in the East, the weather has been weird this year. Many people might see it as karma - people getting the weather they deserve - but scientists have a different hypothesis. Dr Anond Snidvongs, director of Southeast Asia START Regional Office, agrees that the weather has been unusual. "No one knows exactly why it happened, but one thing I can confirm is it is the result of rising global temperatures," the climate expert told The Nation.

Small islands and coastal cities face rising sea levels, but the main menace Thailand faces will be severe fluctuations in weather, Anond said.

"Natural disasters - like flooding, drought and extra cold winter - will happen more frequently and with a wider magnitude," he forecast.

"This is the real meaning of a 1 degree Celsius rise in global temperature to Thailand," he said. "The question for Thais is whether they can bear it?"

Normally, seasonal changes in Thailand are determined, for the most part, by shifts in the global climate belt - the so-called Intertropical Convergence Zone - from north to south. The 100-kilometre to 200km belt forms the barrier between hot and cold weather.

Heavy rains and storms move with it as it shifts each year between southern China (30 degrees north latitude) and Indonesia (30 degrees south latitude).

This yearly pattern has been slightly altered by global warming and as a result there have been changes to the timing of the rainy season and the amount of rain that falls, as well as changes to other seasons, Anond explained.

“All the scientific indicators we have now support this view. If we are right, the climate pattern will be unpredictable [like this year], but it might not [be unpredictable] every year,” he added.

Amidst all the unpredictability, there may be one safe bet. Anond said the phenomena known as La Nina – unusually cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific – is likely to have an impact from the end of next year until midway through the rainy season of 2008.

He said he has seen initial signs of La Nina – for the first time in three years – over the last two weeks. Another two months of monitoring would be needed before he could confirm that the phenomena – the opposite of El Nino – was occurring, he said.

If La Nina is happening, it will start having an impact by the end of next year and the effects will last for about two years, he said. The upshot would be a lot more rain.

Anond said there would be more landslides, and the average year-round temperature will be cooler. As a result farmers will see higher yields, but the risk from diseases that thrive in higher humidity would also rise.

However, Anond was quick to point out there was room for hope among all the gloom. The impact of climate change is preventable, he said.

“Technologically, we can prepare for and minimise the impact, but an efficient management system is needed.”

But it would be difficult to establish such a system in Thailand because it would require technologically advanced equipment and – most importantly – qualified personnel, Anond said. Thailand would not be able to properly train personnel to manage the system within a year, he added.

To be able to cope with climate change, Thailand needs better monitoring at the provincial level and more frequent forecasting. The country’s weather-monitoring system is centralised in Bangkok with about one sub-station per province. More sub-stations are needed as well as monitoring at 15-minute intervals under a system overseen by the national weather office, Anond said.

To set up the climate monitoring system, many legal and regulatory hurdles would have to be overcome first, he said.

Kamol Sukin

The Nation

Create Date : 25 ธันวาคม 2548 Last Update : 25 ธันวาคม 2548 12:31:47 น. Counter : 811 Pageviews.		0 comments
Share Tweet