July 11, 2005 -- The 11% Solution: An article in Barron's says the stock market is very overvalued New research by analyst Adam Barth finds that average earnings over any 20-year period are surprisingly constant. (11-Jul-2005) SummaryResearch by analyst Adam Barth of Hoboken, N.J., based Barth Research in Barron's shows that in any 20 year period (1920-39, 1921-39, etc.) since 1920, the stock market is surprising constant with respect to average earnings and growth. Therefore, this must be true for the period 1995-2014. The past 11 years have seen an enormous stock bubble which continues to this day, and so the next 9 years will have to compensate, meaning that the stock market is far overvalued.
When I say we're going to have a stock market crash with 100% certainty, as I've been saying since 2002, it doesn't make much difference to anyone, since I'm basically a nobody. Mainstream financial publications and stations like The Wall Street Journal and CNBC have an editorial policy of avoiding negative views. To mainstream media, the stock market has nowhere to go but up, up and up.
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