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«×éÍËØé¹ P/E µèÓ´Õ¡ÇèÒËØé¹ P/E ÊÙ§ ¨ÃÔ§ËÃ×Í?


ã¹·Ò§ä¿á¹¹«ìáÅéÇ ËØé¹ PE ¶Ù¡ËÃ×ÍᾧàÃҨдٷÕè ÍѵÃÒ¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ¢Í§¡ÓäÃ(earning growth) »ÃСͺ¡Ñ¹  ËØé¹·ÕèÁÕ PE ÊÙ§ ¶éҼšÓäÃâµÁÒ¡ËÅÒ»յԴµè͡ѹ¡ç¡ÅÒÂà»ç¹ËØé¹ PE ¶Ù¡ä´é


Åͧ´ÙµÑÇÍÂèÒ§§èÒÂæ¹Ð¤ÃѺ ËØé¹ A à·Ã´·Õè PE 20 à·èÒ ÃÒ¤Ò 20 ºÒ· ÁÕ¡Óäà 1ºÒ·/ËØé¹ ¡ÓäÃâµ»ÕÅÐ 25%, ËØé¹ B à·Ã´ PE 15 à·èÒ ÃÒ¤Ò 15 ºÒ· ¡Óäà 1 ºÒ·µèÍËØé¹àËÁ×͹¡Ñ¹   áµè¡ÓäÃâµá¤è»ÕÅÐ 5% ´Ù¼ÔÇà¼Ô¹áÅéÇËØé¹ B ÍÒ¨¨Ð¶Ù¡¡ÇèÒËØé¹ A à¾ÃÒÐà·Ã´·Õè PE µèÓ¡ÇèÒ áµè¶éÒ¶×Íŧ·Ø¹ÂÒÇæÅèÐ ÊÁÁµÔÇèÒÁͧ价Õè 3 »Õ¢éҧ˹éÒ¨Ðà¡Ô´ÍÐäâÖé¹ ¡ÓäâͧËØé¹ A ¨Ð¡ÅÒÂà»ç¹ 1.95 ºÒ·µèÍËØé¹(=1.25×1.25×1.25) «Ö觶éÒà·Õº¡ÑºÃÒ¤ÒËØ鹻Ѩ¨ØºÑ¹·ÕèÃÒ¤Ò 20 ºÒ· PE ¨ÐàËÅ×Í 10.2 à·èÒ ã¹¢³Ð·ÕèËØé¹ B ¡ÓäèÐâµ¢Öé¹à»ç¹ 1.15 ºÒ·µèÍËØé¹(=1.05×1.05×1.05)·ÓãËé·ÕèÃҤһѨ¨ØºÑ¹·Õè 15 ¤Ô´à»ç¹ 13 à·èÒ «Öè§ËÁÒ¤ÇÒÁÇèÒ ¶éÒàÃÒ¡ÃÐâ´´ä»ÍÂÙèã¹Í¹Ò¤µ 3 »Õ¢éҧ˹éÒ áÅÐ"¶éÒ" ¼Å¡Óäâͧ·Ñé§ÊͧºÃÔÉÑ·à»ç¹ä»µÒÁ·ÕèàÃÒ¤Ò´ ËØé¹ A ¨ÐÁÕ PE 10.2 à·èÒ«Ö觶١¡ÇèÒËØé¹ B ·ÕèÁÕ PE 13 à·èÒ


ÍÐä÷Õè·ÓãËéËØé¹ A ·Õèà¤ÂÁÕ PE ᾧ¡ÇèÒ ¡ÅѺÁÕ PE ¶Ù¡¡ÇèÒ ¤ÓµÍº¤×Í ¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ¹Ñè¹àͧ ´Ñ§¹Ñé¹ã¹ÊÒ¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹àÇÅÒàÃÒ´Ù PE àÃÒ¨Ö§ÁÑ¡¾Ù´¶Ö§ ÍѵÃÒ¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ¢Í§¼Å¡Óäà (earning growth) ¤Çº¤Ùèä»´éÇÂàÊÁÍ ¹Í¡¨Ò¡¹Ñé¹àÃÒÂѧÁÕÊٵçèÒÂæáµèà»ç¹·Õè¹ÔÂÁ¡Ñ¹ÁÒ¡ÍÂÙèÊٵù֧ «Öè§àÃÒàÃÕ¡ÇèÒ PEG (PE to Growth ratio) àÍÒäÇé¤Ó¹Ç³¤ÇÒÁ¶Ù¡ËÃ×Íᾧ¢Í§ PE ÃдѺ´Ñ§¡ÅèÒÇ «Ö觶éÒËØé¹µÑÇä˹ÁÕ PEG µèÓ¡ÇèÒ¡çá»ÅÇèÒ¶Ù¡¡ÇèÒ¹Ñè¹àͧ

ÊٵáÒäӹdz¤×Í PEG = PE ratio / Growth


«Öè§ PEG ¹ÕéàÃÒ¹ÓÁÒãªé§Ò¹¡Ñ¹ÊͧÃٻẺ¤×Í

1. à»ÃÕºà·ÕºËØé¹Êͧ ËØé¹·ÕèÁÕ¤èÒ PEG µèÓ¡ÇèÒÂèÍÁà»ç¹ËØé¹·Õè¶Ù¡¡ÇèÒ

2. à»ÃÕºà·Õº¤ÇÒÁ¶Ù¡á¾§¢Í§µÑÇÁѹàͧ ËØé¹·ÕèÁÕ¤èÒ PEG < 1 áÊ´§ÇèÒà»ç¹ËØ鹶١ (á»ÅÇèÒà·Ã´·ÕèÃдѺ PE äÁèÊÙ§àÁ×èÍà·Õº¡Ñº¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ·Õè·Óä´é)


´Ñ§¹Ñé¹ÊÓËÃѺ㹡óբéÒ§µé¹ ËØé¹ A ÁÕ PEG 20/25 = 0.8 áÅÐ ËØé¹ B ÁÕ PEG 15/5    = 3.0  

«Öè§áÊ´§ÇèÒËØé¹ B ¹Ñé¹á¾§¡ÇèÒËØé¹ A ÁÒ¡ (PEG 3.0 > 0.8) áÅÐËØé¹ A ÁÕ¤ÇÒÁ¶Ù¡ÁÒ¡¾ÍàËÁÒÐÊÁµèÍ¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹ (PEG < 1.0)


¡ÒÃàÅ×Í¡«×éÍËØé¹ PE µèÓæ ¨Ö§ÁÑ¡à»ç¹à˵ؼÅÍѹ´Ñºµé¹æ¢Í§¹Ñ¡Å§·Ø¹Á×ÍãËÁè·Õè»ÃÐʺ»Ñ­ËÒ«×éÍËØ鹶١æáÅéÇËØé¹äÁèä»ä˹ (¶Ù¡ä»àÃ×èÍÂæ ËÅÒ»ռèҹ仡çÂѧ¶Ù¡àËÁ×͹à´ÔÁ) à¾ÃÒÐÅ×Á´ÙàÃ×èͧ¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ¤Çº¤Ùèä»´éÇ «Öè§ÀÒÉÒä¿á¹¹«ìàÃÒàÃÕ¡ÇèÒ Value trap (¡Ñº´Ñ¡¢Í§¡Òë×éÍËØ鹶١)


ÍÂèÒ§äáçµÒÁ ÇԸմѧ·Õè¡ÅèÒÇÁÒ·Ñé§ËÁ´¹Õé ¨ÐãªéäÁèä´éàŶéÒàÃҤӹdz¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ¼Ô´¾ÅÒ´ ËØé¹ A ÍÒ¨à»ç¹ËØé¹·Õèᾧ¶éÒ ¡ÒÃàµÔºâµ¨ÃÔ§µèÓ¡ÇèÒ·Õè¤Ò´¡ÒóìäÇé áÅéÇÍÐä÷Õè¨Ð·ÓãËé¡ÒÃàµÔºâµäÁèà»ç¹ä»µÒÁ·Õè¤Ò´ ¼Á¨Ð¾Ù´¶Ö§»ÃÐà´ç¹¹Õé㹵͹¶Ñ´ä»¤ÃѺ




 

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