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U.S. Market is very over valued

 

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contents on this page:


The 11% Solution


Value of the stock market


Fallacies and Hoaxes in Price / earnings ratios


The Peak Earnings Methodology


Forward Earnings


 














 Generational
Dynamics
 Forecasting America's Destiny



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July 11, 2005 -- The 11% Solution: An article in Barron's says the stock market is very overvalued

New research by analyst Adam Barth finds that average earnings over any 20-year period are surprisingly constant. (11-Jul-2005) SummaryResearch by analyst Adam Barth of Hoboken, N.J., based Barth Research in Barron's shows that in any 20 year period (1920-39, 1921-39, etc.) since 1920, the stock market is surprising constant with respect to average earnings and growth. Therefore, this must be true for the period 1995-2014. The past 11 years have seen an enormous stock bubble which continues to this day, and so the next 9 years will have to compensate, meaning that the stock market is far overvalued.

When I say we're going to have a stock market crash with 100% certainty, as I've been saying since 2002, it doesn't make much difference to anyone, since I'm basically a nobody. Mainstream financial publications and stations like The Wall Street Journal and CNBC have an editorial policy of avoiding negative views. To mainstream media, the stock market has nowhere to go but up, up and up.





 

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โครงสร้าง Temasek

Key investments and effective shareholdings (% share)


Telecommunications
&
Media
Financial Services Property
• SingTel 63
• SingTel Optus 631
• MediaCorp 100
• Telekom Malaysia 5
• ST Telemedia 100
• Starhub 632
• Global Crossing 713
• PT IndoSat 413
• Equinix 353

• DBS 28
• Bank Danamon 56
• ICICI Bank 9
• Hana Financial Holdings 9
• Bank Internasional
Indonesia 35
• Malaysian Plantation / Alliance Bank 15
• China Minsheng Bank 5
• NDLC-IFIC Bank (NIB) 73
• Fullerton Fund
Management
100
• China Construction
Bank 6
• CapitaLand 43
• Australand Holdings 314
• Raffles Holdings 354
• Ascott 404
• Keppel Land 175
• Mapletree
Investments 100
• Surbana Corporation 100


Transportation
&
Logistics
Energy & Resources Infrastructure, Engineering & Technology
• SIA 57
• NOL 67
• PSA 100
• SMRT 55
• SembCorp Logistics 316



• Singapore Power 100
• Sembcorp Utilities 515
• PowerSeraya 100
• Senoko Power 100
• Tuas Power 100




• Keppel Corp 32
• Keppel Offshore &
Marine 325
• SembCorp Industries 51
• SembCorp Marine 326
• ST Engineering 55
• Chartered Semiconductor
Manufacturing 60
• STATS ChipPAC Ltd 36
• Mahindra & Mahindra
5


Biopharma & Healthcare
Others


Notes

1 Held through SingTel
2 Held through ST Telemedia & MediaCorp
3 Held through ST Telemedia
4 Held through CapitaLand
5 Held through Keppel Corp
6 Held through SembCorp Industries

• Quintiles Transnational Corp 17
• Matrix Laboratories 13
• Apollo Hospital Enterprise
7
• Temasek Life Sciences Laboratories 33
• Wildlife Reserves
Singapore 88
• Aetos Security
Management
100
• Cisco Security 100




Telecommunications & Media

SingTel

(//welcome.singtel.Com)

SingTel is Asia's leading telecommunications provider with a comprehensive portfolio of services that include voice and data services over fixed, wireless and Internet platforms. It is Singapore's largest company in terms of market capitalisation. The SingTel Group has expanded significantly into overseas markets, with investments and operations in over 20 countries and territories, including Optus in Australia.





ST Telemedia

(//WWW.sttcomms.Com/)

ST Telemedia is a leading information-communications company in Singapore and the Asia-Pacific region. Incorporated in 1994, it is focused on two core business areas: Telephony Services, and Global Internet Protocol (IP) services. Through its group of companies, ST Telemedia offers a full array of telecommunications, information technology and communications services including fixed and mobile services, wireless data transmission, satellite services, Internet exchange infrastructure solutions and services, cable television. ST Telemedia is a major shareholder of StarHub, a Singapore-based infocomms company, Indosat in Indonesia, and Equinix in USA.





MediaCorp

(//WWW.mediacorp.Com.sg)

MediaCorp Pte Ltd (MediaCorp) is Singapore's largest and most established broadcaster with a complete range of media businesses spanning TV, Radio, Entertainment Production, Newspapers, Magazines, Electronic Media, Movies and other broadcasting services. As part of its content-driven strategy, it produces highly-rated multi-lingual and multi-genre local content with a regional reach.





Financial Services

DBS

(//WWW.dbs.Com)

DBS Bank is the largest bank in Singapore as measured by assets, with dominant positions in consumer banking, treasury and markets, securities brokerage, equity and debt fund raising. With the merger of its wholly-owned Dao Heng Bank and DBS Kwong On Bank operations in Hong Kong, DBS Bank is now the fourth largest banking group in Hong Kong. Beyond the anchor markets of Singapore and Hong Kong, DBS Bank serves corporate, institutional and retail customers through its operations in Thailand, The Philippines, and Indonesia. In China, the bank has branches and representative offices in Shanghai,Beijing, Shenzhen, Fuzhou and Tianjin. The Bank's credit ratings are amongst the highest in the Asia-Pacific region.






PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk

(//www.danamon.co.id)

Established in 1956, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (Danamon) is the second largest private national bank and the fifth largest commercial bank in Indonesia, with a 5% share of the domestic system loans and deposits. Danamon has the widest geographic distribution network of all Indonesian banks with 500 branch offices, 750 ATMs and is well-supported by more than 13,000 employees. Danamon is recognised as Indonesia's leading SME and consumer bank and also serves corporate and institutional customers across Indonesia.




Bank Internasional Indonesia

(//www.bii.co.id)

Bank Internasional Indonesia is one of six largest banks in Indonesia. It has over two million accounts at its 250 branch offices (four of them are overseas) and it is the only bank in Indonesia that provides ATM in U.S. Dollar currency. BII's online banking network spans across Indonesia, which is made up of 700 ATM units that are connected to 3,000 ALTO ATMs all over Indonesia, as well as 8,000 Cirrus ATMs around the globe. BII debit card is welcomed at 5.6 million merchants throughout the world. As a pioneer of virtual banking service, BII also offers facilities such as Internet Banking, Corporate Online Banking (CoOL Banking), and Phone Banking. Supported by 8,000 employees, BII is committed to serving its customers better and with care.





NIB Bank

(//www.nibpk.com)

NIB Bank is a bank in Pakistan, focused on consumer and corporate banking, investment banking and asset management. The Corporate Banking division focuses on developing relationships with top tier and middle market corporations and offers a diversified menu of products to such corporations. The Consumer Bank divison focuses on deposit generation and developing a consumer asset base in the areas of auto finance, mortgage finance and other selected consumer loan programmes.




Property

CapitaLand

(//www.capitaland.com)

CapitaLand Limited is one of the largest listed property companies in Asia. Headquartered in Singapore, CapitaLand's core businesses in residential, commercial and industrial property and property related services, such as property funds and real estate financials, are focused in selected gateway cities in China, Australia and the UK. Its hospitality businesses, in serviced residences and hotels, have a global footprint in more than 50 cities worldwide.






Raffles Holdings

(//www.rafflesholdings.com)

Raffles Holdings is a hospitality company listed on the Singapore Exchange. It is headquartered in Singapore and has an approximate 12,000-room portfolio, comprising 38 hotels and resorts in 33 major destinations across Asia, Australia, Europe, North America and South America. The Group's portfolio of hotels is marketed under two brands - Raffles Hotels & Resorts which distinguishes itself by the highest standards of products and services in major international cities; and Swissôtel Hotels & Resorts which offers quality accommodation and the full range of modern facilities expected by today's discerning traveller.





The Ascott Group

(//www.the-ascott.com)

The Ascott Group is a leading international serviced residence company, covering the gateway cities of Europe, Southeast Asia, North Asia and Australasia. Ascott's global presence comprises more than 13,800 serviced residence units in more than 110 properties across 39 cities in 16 countries.




Keppel Land

(//www.keppelland.com.sg)

Keppel Land is the third largest listed property company by total assets in Singapore. It is an established developer of premier residential and investment grade offices. It is geographically diversified in Asia including China, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Australia, Indonesia and Myanmar.





Mapletree Investments

(//www.mapletree.com.sg)

Mapletree Investments is a property development company. It owns and manages an asset base comprising primarily waterfront office, retail and industrial properties.




Transportation and Logistics

Singapore Airlines

(//www.singaporeair.com.sg)

The SIA Group is one of the world's foremost commercial aviation companies. The Group has over 20 subsidiaries, covering a range of airline-related services from cargo to catering, and baggage handling to engine overhaul. In addition to SilkAir, they include Singapore Airlines Cargo (a cargo carrier), Singapore Airport Terminal Services (a group of ground handling companies) and the SIA Engineering Company. Founded on its dedication to being an innovative market leader, SIA is also one of the most consistently profitable airlines in the world.






PSA International

(//www.psa.com.sg/)

PSA is a global leader in the ports and terminals business with investments in 17 port projects in 11 countries - Singapore, Belgium, Brunei, China, India, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, South Korea and Thailand. It operates the world's largest transhipment hub in Singapore where shippers have a choice of 200 shipping lines with connections to 600 ports in 123 countries.




Neptune Orient Lines

(//www.nol.com.sg)

The Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) group is a world leader in global shipping and logistics services. In 1997, NOL acquired shipping giant American President Lines (APL). Today, APL is the container transportation arm of NOL, and sister company, APL Logistics, provides global supply chain services.





SMRT Corporation Ltd

(//www.smrtcorp.com.sg)

SMRT Corporation Ltd is a leading player in Singapore's public transportation sector. It is the pioneer operator of the rapid transit network and also provides public bus and taxi services. Other business interests include car rental and leasing, workshop and fleet maintenance services.




SembCorp Logistics

(//www.semblog.com)

Operating in 12 countries, SembCorp Logistics (SembLog) is Asia's leading integrated logistics services provider focusing on supply chain management and offshore logistics. To support multi-national corporations on a global scale, SembLog has established a strategic partnership with the world's leading freight forwarder Kuenhe & Nagel International to offer end-to-end supply chain management solutions across a global network.




Energy & Resources

Singapore Power

(//www.spower.com.sg)

Singapore Power Ltd owns, operates and maintains the electricity and gas transmission and distribution networks in Singapore. It offers market support services such as providing market settlement data for the new energy market, and integrated billing services for all utilities. Singapore Power also owns several overseas assets including an industrial co-generation plant in Korea and the electricity transmission network in Victoria, Australia.






PowerSeraya, Senoko Power, Tuas Power

(//www.powerseraya.com.sg)
(//senokopower.com.sg)
(//www.tuaspower.com.sg)

PowerSeraya, Senoko Power and Tuas Power are three of the largest generation companies in Singapore. They accounted for approximately 34%, 31% and 24% respectively of the total electricity sales by volume in Singapore in the year 2002. Apart from the generation of electricity, all three companies, through their wholly owned subsidiaries, are also engaged in the supply of electricity to industrial and commercial customers.


Singapore Technologies Engineering

(//www.stengg.com)

Singapore Technologies Engineering, one of the ten largest companies on the Singapore Exchange, is an integrated engineering group specialising in aerospace, electronics, land systems and marine capabilities for defence and commercial customers.





Keppel Corporation

(//www.kepcorp.com)

The Keppel Group is focused on three core businesses in Offshore & Marine, Property and Infrastructure. With a global presence across 26 countries, its operations are close to the market, and closer yet to its customers.

Already a world leader in the construction of jack-up rigs, Keppel continues to leverage its international network, resources and strong branding to grow key businesses into global entities.




SembCorp Industries

(//www.sembcorp.com.sg)

SembCorp Industries is Asia's foremost engineering services group. Its key businesses are utilities, engineering & construction, environmental engineering, logistics and marine engineering.




SembCorp Marine

(//www.sembcorpmarine.com.sg)

SembCorp Marine Ltd, is a leading global marine-engineering group specialising in ship repair, shipbuilding, ship conversion, rig construction and offshore oil & gas engineering. With a combined docking capacity of 2.3 million deadweight tonnes, SembCorp Marine has the largest marine-engineering facilities East of the Suez Canal. SembCorp Marine's businesses are conducted globally through eight strategically located shipyards across the world - four in Singapore, two in China and one each in Indonesia and Brazil. Operating as distinct brand names, each shipyard focuses on their areas of expertise and market niches and forms part of SembCorp Marine's global hub strategy.




Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing

(//www.charteredsemi.com)

Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing (Chartered), one of the world's top three dedicated semiconductor foundries, provides flexible and cost-effective manufacturing solutions for customers, enabling the convergence of communications, computing and consumer markets. In Singapore, Chartered operates five fabrication facilities and has a sixth fab, which will be developed as a 300mm facility. A company with both global presence and perspective, Chartered is traded on both the Nasdaq and on the Singapore Exchange. Chartered's 3,500 employees are based at 11 locations around the world.





STATS ChipPAC Ltd

(//www.statschippac.com)

STATS ChipPAC Ltd (STATS ChipPAC), is a leading service provider of semiconductor packaging design, assembly, test and distribution. STATS ChipPAC's value proposition is total solutions of fully integrated, multi-site, end-to-end assembly and testing solutions that bring products to market and volume faster. It is also a leader in mixed signal testing and advanced packaging technology for semiconductors used in diverse end market applications including communications, power, digital consumer and computing. The Company's global manufacturing facilities and customer support offices span across Singapore, Korea, China, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan, Netherlands and the United States. Together with the Company's Test Development Center in Singapore, this forms a global network providing dedicated test engineering development and product engineering support for customers from design to volume production. STATS ChipPAC's facilities also include those of its subsidiary, Winstek Semiconductor Corporation in Hsinchu Valley, Taiwan, which offers new product introduction support, pre-production wafer sort, final test, packaging and other high volume preparatory services. STATS ChipPAC is listed on both Nasdaq National Market and The Singapore Exchange.




Others

Wildlife Reserves Singapore

(//www.zoo.com.sg)

Wildlife Reserves Singapore manages three of Singapore's leading tourist attractions: Singapore Zoo, Night Safari and Jurong Bird Park. These wildlife facilities have won local and international recognition as top zoological and tourist attractions in Singapore and the region for many years. In particular, their large and comprehensive collection of animals and birds, as well as the pioneering of new concepts in exhibit design and conservation have received many accolades.



Aetos Security Management

(//www.aetos.com.sg)

Aetos aims to be a premier security management services provider, offering cost effective armed-guard services and integrated security solutions for key installations in Singapore and the region. Supported by a team of 1,200 well-trained and disciplined professionals, it will provide security solutions by leveraging on cutting-edge security and surveillance technologies. With its core capability of high security protection expertise, Aetos is well placed to meet a variety of security threats to high-value assets.










Surbana Corporation

(http//www.surbana.com)

Surbana Corporation (Surbana Corp) is an established provider of integrated urban planning, architectural & engineering design and other building consultancy services. Its core business also includes township development. The Singapore company plays a prominent role in furnishing the nation with a premium public housing programme. Previously a Building Division under Singapore's Housing & Development Board, it is now a knowledge-based company having over 40 years' track record. Surbana Corp has also successfully exported its expertise to various countries across Asia and the Middle East.





Cisco Security

(//www.cisco.com.sg)

With more than 45 years of experience in protecting lives and assets, CISCO Security Pte Ltd is Singapore’s leading security organisation.

Offering a comprehensive range of security services, CISCO is the trusted name in security for commercial, industrial as well as residential applications.

From Security Consulting, Armed & Unarmed Manpower, Security Training, Cash and Valuables Security to Information Security, CISCO’s integrated range of security solutions are designed for the total protection of your assets. Whether it is a single service or complete package, CISCO is your choice for a complete security partner that offers one-stop security solutions that are practical, cost efficient and best suited to your requirements.

Committed to excellence, CISCO is a member of the Singapore Quality Class and is ISO 9000 certified. Awarded the People Developer Standard, CISCO places high emphasis on staff training and people development.

Operating beyond Singapore, CISCO Security Pte Ltd also has strategic overseas partnerships in India, Indonesia and Sri Lanka to offer security services.













 

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Happy New Year 2006


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วิธีใช้ Hoonfriendpages Yahoo Group



Click อมยิ้ม หรือ blog ของดิฉัน จะมี link ไป Yahoo Finance Group เพื่อสมัครสมาชิก เลือกรับ หรือไม่รับเอกสารในอนาคตได้ ถ้าไม่เลือก messages ใหม่ๆรวมทั้ง attachments จะถูกส่งไปให้

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จะมี message เรื่องนี้ posted ไว้ ซึ่งมีชื่อ นามสกุล หมายเลขโรศัพท์ และ email ของผู้ที่คุณจะติดต่อสอบถามได้ จากนั้นให้เปิด folder " Free training" แล้ว download เอกสารแสดงรายละเอียดต่างๆ รวมทั้งชื่อและที่อยู่ของบริษัท มี application form ซึ่งสามารถกรอกข้อความ แล้ว apply online ได้ค่ะ

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messages เก่าๆ มีให้อ่านตั้งแต่เวปเก่าปลายปี 2004 (เต็มแล้ว) และในเวป Yahoo ใหม่ เก็บไว้ในคลัง Archieve ไม่มีการลบทิ้ง เต็มเมื่อไร ดิฉันก็จะหาวิธีอื่นๆให้จนได้ จุดประสงค์เพื่อดิฉันจะได้ตามอ่านด้วย

เวลาดู จะเปิดทีละหัวข้อก็ได้ แต่เพื่อความรวดเร็ว ให้คลิก expand ข้อความทุกหัวข้อในหน้านั้นจะเปิดให้ดูในหน้าเดียวกัน และเป็นต้นฉบับหลากสีสรร และตัวหนังสือใหญ่ขึ้นมาก มี links ในข้อความไปหาอ่านรายละเอียดโยงใยมากมาย เช่น LH ก็มีแผนที่ รายละเอียดเรื่อง properties, TPI ก็โยงไปที่เจ้าหนี้ และกลุ่มเคมี Pttep ก็เรื่องพลังงานอื่นๆด้วย ล่าสุดเรื่อง EGAT ก็มีงบการเงิน และหนังสือให้ download

แต่ attachments ที่ส่งไปแล้ว จะไม่อยู่ใน messages (เขาไม่ให้แนบรวมกัน) หาดูและ download บางรายการได้ในหน้า files




 

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